Abstract
The forecasting of talented players is a crucial aspect of building a successful sports franchise. Professional sports invest significant resources in making player choices in sport 'drafts'. The current study examined career performance against draft round for the NFL, NHL, NBA and MLB for players drafted from 1980-1989 (N=10,800) against the assumption of a linear relationship between draft round and performance (i.e., that players with the most potential will be selected before players of lower potential). Multiple linear regression analyses calculated the relationship between career performance variables and draft round. Within the NHL and NBA there was no relationship between career performance and draft round beyond the first round of the draft. In the NFL weak relationships were found for both offensive and defensive positions between draft round and career performance. MLB pitchers showed a medium relationship between draft round and statistical performance and a low correlation for career longevity, where batters showed a small relationship for both statistics and longevity. Results highlight the challenges of accurately evaluating amateur talent. Findings will be discussed within the context of previous literature on the accuracy of professional drafts.
