Abstract
Historically, the relative age effect (RAE) was thought to be driven by level of competition and talent identification processes. More recent investigations show the effect is present at early levels of competition. Given the presence of the RAE at introductory levels, it is necessary to evaluate dropout from sport across competition levels as the development of expertise is predicated by ongoing participation. The objective of this study was to examine dropout in a female cohort retrospectively across seven years (i.e., pre-adolescent to post-adolescent transition years), with respect to relative age and level of competition (i.e., competitive versus recreational). A chi-square analysis was conducted to ascertain whether a RAE was present in the initial year of registration entries; followed by a survival analysis to assess the impact of relative age on dropout from female developmental soccer in Ontario (n = 9,908). An over-representation of players born in the second quartile was observed in the initial year (age 10 years). Preliminary findings suggested relatively older players were statistically more likely to remain engaged in soccer (p < .001) over the seven-year period, however the trend was not practically significant (w = 0.05). When competition level was considered, the cumulative survival for recreational and competitive level players was 20.7% and 55.9%, respectively; indicating a greater rate of decline at the recreational level. This suggests that participation trends may depend on sport context and further analysis is warranted.Acknowledgments: This research was supported through a Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council Doctoral Fellowship (K. Smith).