Abstract
The supportive behavior of home team fans only partially explains improved performance, but it can affect referees and bias them to favor the home team. The recent Home Advantage Mediated (HAM; Bilalić et al., 2021, 2024) model for soccer used team performances (TP) and referee decisions (RD) in a Bayesian hierarchical mediation model to show that in the absence of spectators during COVID-19, TP and RD bias decreased, leading to a decreased HA (N=4,356 games, 12 leagues, 1,131 games without spectators). We extend the HAM model to include the influence of the absolute number of spectators on TP, RD, and match outcome in handball, while controlling for the general decline in HA since 2014.
Data from the German male premier league (2014-2021, www.liquimoly-hbl.de) was analyze regarding whether the influence of spectators on TP and RD mediates the spectator-HA relationship using hierarchical structural equation models. 55% of the N=2,764 games in the German handball league were won by the home team. Composite scores for TP and RD were derived from individual player statistics and referee calls (fouls, penalties) using confirmatory factor analysis. Before COVID-19, more penalties were given to the away team by the referee (β=.08*), but this had a negligible effect on HA (β=.05). The indirect effect on the referee (β<.001*) and on TP (β=.07*) were smaller than in Bilalić et al. (2021), i.e., we could not confirm the HAM model in handball. Model specifications and extension to the original are presented.
