Abstract
Serving in tennis typically offers a distinct advantage, with the expectation of winning one’s service game, known as ‘holding serve’, while losing a service game is referred to as getting ‘broken’. Researchers suggest that factors like court surface, motivation, mental toughness, sex, serve speed, and tournament type influence serving success (Cross & Pollard, 2009; Meffert et al., 2018; Moss & O’Donoghue, 2017). Ironically, the expectation to win can elevate psychological pressure, described by Baumeister (1984) as “any factor or combination of factors that increases the importance of performing well,” potentially impairing performance despite situational advantage. Supporting this, Harris and colleagues (2021) found that unforced errors significantly increase under pressure, particularly at critical points in matches. It was hypothesized that players would face greater difficulty holding serve during critical moments, like when serving to win or to extend a set, due to heightened pressure from the immediacy of the impact on match outcome. However, a statistical analysis of hold and break patterns across 70,640 ATP and 54,632 WTA service games from matches played in 2023 revealed that players tend to hold serve at or above average during critical scores (e.g., 4-5, 5-4). Conversely, players are less likely to hold serve when trailing in a set, with the underperformance deepening as the deficit grows. These findings may imply that a declining confidence in a set outcome leads to a deterioration in serve performance. Additional analysis assessed nuances related to court surface, sex, and tournament type, offering further insight into serving success under varying conditions.
