Abstract
Research on the correlates of talent development and expertise in areas outside of sport (e.g., politics and academia: McCann, 2001) suggests that those who reach notable career landmarks earlier in life also tend to have a shorter lifespan. To date, this phenomenon has yet to be explored in the domain of sport. This study examined mortality as a function of career precocity among deceased athletes who played in the National Basketball Association (NBA) in the 1940s and 1950s (N=377). Age of entry was positively correlated with age of death (r = .26, p < .001). Linear regression analysis also supported entry age as a significant negative predictor of lifespan (F (1,376) = 27.04, p < .001), accounting for approximately 7% of the variance in age of death. When entered into the regression equation entry ages of 22 and 25 predicted mean ages of death of 67.5 and 70.9, respectively. Interestingly, age of entry was negatively correlated with career length (measured as seasons played: r = - 28, p < .001). Importantly, these relationships may be confounded by athletes who were prematurely deceased and require further exploration. However, collectively, these results suggest a potentially negative consequence of early entry to professional basketball, which may be concerning considering the decline in mean entrance age throughout the history of the NBA. As such, if confirmed with more contemporary samples, these results may have implications for models of talent development in sport.
