The tendency to the draw in top level sports

Abstract

Recent research has developed the methodological tools in order to analyze match courses of sport contests in a statistically sound manner. One major finding from these suggested the existence of the „tendency to the draw“ (TD), a force that makes the parties perform better when being handicapped within a match (Heuer & Rubner, 2012, Gabel & Redner, 2012). This finding is has been explained by the Prospect Theory, stating that individuals are more motivated to avoid losses than to achieve gains (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979). It is in sharp contrast to the many theories postulating affirmative effects of previous performances, such as the self-regulation model of athletic performance (Bandura, 1991). This study aimed to assess the role that a potential TD-effect plays in the National Basketball Association (NBA). We analyzed in-match data from the regular seasons 2007/08 – 2012/13 (N=7140 matches). Controlling for team strength and technical effects (e.g. possession of the ball), we found clear evidence for the existence of the TD, the average scoring probability for teams with a deficit being 52.1±.1%. The TD-force seems to be „all-embracing“, in that it is working symmetrically on home and guest teams, strong and weak teams and also independently of the match quarter. Overall, its effect is even bigger than home advantage (51.7±.1% scoring probability). In sum, this force therefore leads to much more close matches than would generally be expected. We discuss the determinants and related research fields in order to ease the way for experimental research on this scarcely investigated phenomenon.